Portfolio Optimization

Portfolio Optimization information and resources presented by Gravity Investments

How Options Investing Can Help You Generate Income

Options trading can be very rewarding. Because options are leveraged instruments they hold the potential for substantial profits or losses in a relatively short period of time. If you are correct on a stock’s direction, and if your timing is good, you can do quite well. However, because options are a decaying asset that loses value over time, you have to be disciplined.

First, what are options? There are two types: puts and calls. A ‘put’ option gives the buyer the right to *sell* 100 shares of a certain stock at a certain price by a certain date. A ‘call’ option is the opposite — it gives the buyer the right to *buy* 100 shares of stock at a certain price by a certain date. In both cases the ‘certain price’ is called ’strike price’ and the ‘certain date’ is the ‘expiration date’ of the option.

Options trading is done for many reasons. Typically people buy puts as insurance; you know you will always receive at least the strike price for your stock. Other people use calls and puts for short-term speculation where they feel strongly about a stock rising or falling in a short period of time. And, lastly, some investors (and professional traders) use the option’s time decay to generate recurring monthly income.

When trading options there is a fundamental question of whether or not you should be a buyer or a seller of options. You can make money both ways but since options are a zero-sum game and the fact that the majority of options held until expiration expire worthless, the odds are in your favor if you are a seller of options instead of a buyer.

The simplest, most popular, and most conservative strategy for selling options is called ‘covered calls’ — a situation where an investor owns 100 or more shares of an underlying stock and then sells call options against that position. If the stock is above the strike price of the call option on expiration day then the investor can either buy the option back (if he wants to hold on to his stock) or let it get called away (where the buyer of the option will ‘exercise’ his right and force the seller of the option to sell him 100 shares at the previously agreed upon strike price).

You can generate monthly income from stocks you already own by selling call options against them each month. In exchange for putting a cap on your upside, you receive some downside protection (from the call premium you receive when you sell the call option). If the stock drops by less than the amount of premium you receive then you will still make money (and, of course, if the stock stays flat or goes up you will make money, too). This is one of the most appealing aspects of covered calls — the fact that you can make money in up, down, or sideways markets.

Investing with covered calls is not difficult. It is usually the first strategy people learn when they begin with options. It can be time consuming, though, if you don’t have a good covered call screener to help you. A good screener will scan the universe of possible trades and alert you as to where the high yield opportunities are. The alternative of using a spreadsheet to calculate possible trades is, at best, incomplete and laborious.

To find out more investing tips take a look at this site.

Savvy Tips For Getting The Best Price For Your Gold Jewelry

If you search for “sell gold online” in Google, you’ll discover millions of pages. There are countless companies that would like to buy your scrap gold, or any item with precious metal content. Clearly, finding a buyer is not an issue. The challenge is selecting a company that will treat you fairly, and offer a reasonable price for your gold. How can you determine which buyers are reputable, and in a position to offer the best price possible? Fortunately, with a little savvy and due diligence, you can identify companies that meet both criteria.

This article will provide everything you need to know to sell your gold items with confidence that you will receive a fair price. You’ll find that those who have had poor experiences in the past have skipped one or more of the following steps.

Calculate The Value Of Your Scrap Gold

In order to determine whether the price you are offered for your items is fair, you need to know how much they are worth. You’ll need to calculate their value. This is done by taking into account the weight of each piece, along with the fineness of the gold contained in it. The price per troy ounce of the precious metal can then be found online or in the newspaper.

Don’t assume the price posted on a buyer’s website reflects the most recent price per troy ounce. Some companies post low numbers in the hope of deceiving unsuspecting consumers. Get the information from trusted sources.

Know The Difference Between A Buyer and Refiner

Confusing gold buyers and refiners is a common mistake. Most people don’t realize there is a difference. Buyers are essentially brokers. They purchase gold jewelry, old dental work, and pieces of scrap gold, and sell these items to other buyers. As long as they are able pay less than they sell the pieces for, they make a profit. If they are able to do it over and over, they have a viable business.

Gold refiners operate differently. They buy gold (often from brokers) and recycle it. Many refiners then send the recycled precious metal directly to jewelry manufacturers, who use it to make more jewelry. The main difference is that refiners are not middlemen in the gold-buying trade. They occupy the top of the food chain. Consequently, you can attract a much higher price for your scrap gold by circumventing the broker, and working directly with the refiner.

So, how can you tell whether a buyer is a broker versus a refiner? They will reveal this fact on their website.

Conduct Basic Due Diligence Of The Buyer

When you visit the buyer’s website, take time to explore it. They should describe their security measures, and offer an explanation about their evaluation process. There should be information about the buyer’s terms and conditions, along with details regarding insurance. A reputable refiner will also describe the gold-refining process, so you can familiarize yourself with the procedures they use. Many will also explain why recycling gold is much better for the environment than mining for new precious metal.

Look for a phone number on the website, and call it during business hours. You should be able to reach someone who can answer any questions you have about the buying process, including how long it takes to mail a check.

Conducting this type of due diligence won’t guarantee your experience is a positive one. But it will minimize the chances you’ll be taken advantage of by a disreputable buyer.

To summarize, calculate the value of your scrap gold; work with an established gold refiner as opposed to a middleman; and invest the necessary time to research the buyer. Once you sell your old gold jewelry and other scrap gold to an honest, reliable refiner, you can do so with confidence down the road. Moreover, you can do so knowing you will always receive a fair price.

Fiscal Discipline and Unintended Consequences

It’s no secret Ron Paul is expected to chair the Monetary Policy Subcommittee starting next year, and that he intends to properly audit the Fed and US gold reserves as initial steps in attempting to return America to some degree of fiscal discipline. Because there can be little doubt an expanding bureaucracy has hit the limit in terms of what the system can take, which is why you will never see the Fed voluntarily abandon QE2. And this is especially true because of the deflation (of everything from currency to population) peak oil guarantees, not to mention other unintended consequences increasing fiscal restraint would bring. The bottom line here is the bureaucracy will continue to monetize the debt on an increasing basis until the system implodes on itself, which will be the result of uncontrollable rising interest rates and gold prices, which according to Mark Lundeen should be considerably higher.

Impossible? It could be argued it’s already happening, where this week for example, despite a generous POMO schedule this week bonds are falling anyway due to the reporting of uncontrollable price increases and increasing sovereign credit concerns that will surely not disappear anytime soon. So please, don’t be confused by all the propaganda, no matter what the bureaucracy leaders tell you, money printing and monetization practices will remain relentless, although we may get a taste of austerity not many will like as we move into next summer as Mr. Paul does his damdest to fix the world, which will of course prove dangerous to our fiat currency economies at the time. Crashing stock and bond markets in North America will certainly make ‘austerity’ a four letter word as process unfolds, however there is no guarantee another bloated fiat currency system would emerge on the other side of an unwinding, making ‘debt’ an actual four letter word people (creditors) will undoubtedly be paying closer attention to under such circumstances.

In the meantime however, prices have not been falling to support the bureaucracy’s phony inflation reports, so with the retail trade ‘all in’ (to stocks) as reflected in US index open interest put / call ratios, explained here last week, it’s time for a short-term correction. At least that’s what it better be, or the equity complex will be in real trouble a bit early from a cyclical perspective, where we are anticipating a terminal high in stocks during the first quarter of next year, as per the count and patterning presented in the charts below. First we have the long-term Super-Cycle Grid that shows although more room exists for gains, we are entering a cyclical (time-line) turning point.

The second chart zooms in on the lower degree waves to look for clues in the most probable count, etc., displayed below, which in my view would confirm the rising and high probability of an important top being put in place sometime in the first quarter of next year, or shortly afterwards. What we have unfolding here is a typical zigzag, which is a five-wave sequence separated by a corrective three-wave sequence, followed by another five-wave sequence, which you can see has yet to unfold. I have studied the count here for some time and see no other alternative; especially given the big picture where we are expecting a test of the 2009 lows eventually (the larger degree a – b – c sequence in red), so none will be provided.

And as you may know, I also expect the same patterning and timing from gold (and silver) running into next year based on historical precedent (the last big top was in February), where although the cycle might run longer this time because of the higher degree (Grand Super-Cycle?) of the present move, still, some degree of top can be expected at this time, and I can tell you why. Why then? Because our buddy, Ron Paul, will likely be successful in getting enough people who matter pushed over into the Fed audit / austerity camp by then, which will be bad news for the aggregate bubble economy. And again, even if he is ultimately not successful in this regard, he will be making enough noise when he is first appointed chair to get people taking him seriously, which at a minimum will push prudent traders into defensive postures, which means lightening up on equities, precious metals, and anything else associated with the inflation trade.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. We are not registered brokers or advisors. Certain statements included herein may constitute “forward-looking statements” with the meaning of certain securities legislative measures. Such forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of the above mentioned companies, and / or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Do your own due diligence.

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How’s Gold?

The relative trickle of investment funds moving into Gold today will very shortly become a torrent, completely outrunning available Gold supplies and sending prices through the roof.

Although no one I know can say when the big spike in Gold will begin in earnest, given the World’s Financial Fragility, it could literally happen over night. While the focus in recent months has been on the troubles in the Euro zone, don’t forget that the “straw that broke the camels back” was ultimately the crashing U.S. housing market and its mortgage backed securities.

While financial institutions and Governments around the world are at least attempting to recapitalize and are attempting to address their structural problems, US policy makers and their economists have their heads stuck in the sand and are fighting the patient’s symptoms without even offering or even thinking of a possible FIX. Moreover, the U.S. is not addressing its own structural deficits, increasing the risk that America’s Deficit Viruses will morph into a full Malignant Cancer, destroying all that it comes in contact with.

First and foremost, it is important to acknowledge that the GSEs, FMN and FRE were fundamentally ill conceived; so how can they possibly be saved? Without subsidies, home prices will continue to fall – But that would make homes more affordable!!! Policy makers don’t seem to be interested in affordable home prices, they are only interested in the short-sighted belief that preserving the value of overpriced homes through government interference will get them re-elected. After all, the election cycle is never more than 2 years away resulting in Extend and Pretend since it seemed to have worked for the last 40 years or so. But all good things eventually come to an end.

The stock market always attempts to discount the future, which means that economic weakness is only ever a threat when it hasn’t been discounted. This is why the stock market often makes a sustained up-turn, months before the economic data begins to show its true colors. However, there is an exception -Should the FED and the Government decide that the only way left to get money into the hands of the people and Main Street is to BUY SECURITIES with their out of thin air money, instead of creating assets for the FED and Reserves for the Banks, that are NOT lending, then we could be in for a hell of a suck-in rally that will create the Biggest BULL Trap in recorded history.

With the Case-Shiller house price index still 37% above its value in January 2000, just about matching the CPI rise during that same period, house prices are still at least15% to 20% above their long-term average in terms of incomes (the recession reduced incomes has not helped). However in certain areas such as New York, Boston, and Washington DC and its suburbs along with coastal California, house prices remain far above their historical norms.

Global commodity prices are rising inexorably, driven partly by rapidly rising demand in emerging countries that consume a large proportion of hard products (rather than services), but also by persistent negative global real Interest rates. Gold prices, which are once again about to break out to all time record highs, are only a symptom of this. The World Gold Council recently reported that global demand for Gold increased by 40% in the second quarter of 2010 and is running far ahead of supply. Needless to say, the immense liquidity among central banks are increasingly finding Gold a better investment than each others’ currencies, and hedge funds and corporations in general, are also feeding the rise. However, little of the global inflation has yet affected US prices (which are in any case carefully “managed” by the Bureau of Labor Statistics) but its force cannot be denied much longer; By the end of the year, US inflation figures are likely to look considerably less benign than they do today.

Learn how to buy gold and make great money doing it! Gold is the best investment in ANY economy!

The Coal Rush Cometh

I’ve been talking a lot about coal lately.

Specifically, how India’s need for thermal coal imports is going to tighten this market, both in terms of prices, and bids for coal deposits within shipping distance of Asia.

India simply doesn’t have enough coal. As of yesterday, one-third of the nation’s coal-fired power plants were running at “critical” levels of coal stocks (meaning less than seven days of supply). And 10% are at “super-critical”, with less than four days of stock.

I’ve been on this theme for about six months. And finally some of the signs of India’s “dash for coal” are starting to appear.

First, buy-outs of coal deposits. Last week, Canadian-listed coal developer CIC Energy received a $400 million takeover offer from a “multi-billion dollar Indian conglomerate”. CIC is moving forward the Mmambula coal field in southeastern Botswana (thanks for the heads-up, Saee).

India is even getting active in the junior side of the coal business. This week India’s Bhushan Steel announced its intent to buy a stake in Bowen Energy, an Australian coal explorer and developer with projects in the Bowen Basin.

Then there’s the signals from the coal market itself. This week, the chairman of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association told attendees at the Coaltrans Upgrading Coal Forum in Jakarta that India will pass Japan as Indonesia’s biggest coal export customer by 2011.

“In the past, India only bought high-quality coal, but now they started buying a lot of low-rank coal also because of an increase in domestic consumption,” chairman Bob Kamandanu said. He predicted India’s coal imports from Indonesia will rise to 70 million tonnes, up from 40 million tonnes this year.

In addition, Bloomberg reported this week that traders handling Richards Bay, the biggest export port for South African coal, believe rising demand from India could push coal prices at this locale to a two-year high.

The piece also quoted T.K. Chatterjee, procurement manager at Indian power major NTPC, as saying, “India will be importing in a big way… This will lead to an increase in prices.”

Signs, signs, everywhere signs.

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Panic Selling Hit SP500 Today, Silver and Gold Are Next!

Today the stock market bled out with a river of red candles. All of the recent gains vanished in one session. Strong selling volume sessions like this are typically a warning sign that distribution selling is starting to enter the market.

Distribution selling is when the big money players start unloading large positions in anticipation of a market top. They do try to hide it by selling into good news or earnings when the average investors are buying into all the hype of better than expected earnings on the news. As average investors jump into the market because of the good news, this extra liquidity helps the big money players (banks, hedge funds, etc..) sell large amounts of their positions to the eager buyers. This is why the “buy on rumor and sell on the news” saying is kicked around wall street….

To me, panic selling is typically seen as a bullish sign to enter the market simply because if everyone is/has rushed to the door to sell what they own, then really most of the down side risk has been taken out of the market. That being said after an extended multi month rally and higher than selling volume I look at it more like distribution selling and a shift in momentum.

I feel the precious metals sector will be starting something like this in the near futures, and possibly it has already started as seen in the rising volume on the down days.

Let’s take a look at the charts…

AAPL – Apple Stock 10 Minute Chart Two days ago AAPL shares took big hit because of some medical issues with the CEO, the shares did float back up. But what is important here is the distribution selling which took place after Apple came out with much better than expected earnings. The general public loves to buy good news especially when it’s for a famous company. But large sellers stepped in unloading as much of their position as they could before making it look to obvious.

The average investor listening on the radio or catching snippets on the news do not pick up on these things which is why the big money players can get away with this over and over again.

GS – Goldman Sachs 10 Minute Chart Goldman came out with average earnings being just above estimates and the share price took a beating with very strong volume.

Distribution selling looks to be entering the market and this is a bearish sign. I would not be surprised if we see the market top out in the next 5-10 trading sessions.

SPY – SP500 10 Minute Chart Here you can see my green panic selling indicator spiking up much higher than normal dwarfing the past sell off spikes. This makes me think the big money is now starting to unload which will shift the current upward momentum to more of a sideways whipsaw type of price action. Eventually it will roll over and a new down trend will start.

As you can see from this chart the SP500 is trading down at a support level so a bounce is likely going to take place. If in fact today was the first distribution day then the big money should let the price inflate back up to the recent highs and possibly make a new high to help keep investors bullish before the hit their SELL BUTTON again… They like to play these games and understanding them is a key part of trading. Expect choppy price action for a week or two…

Silver Daily Chart – The Next Wave of Selling? I look at silver and gold as one… so what I show here is the exact same for gold.

As you can see silver is trading under 3 of its key moving averages and todays bounce was sold into after testing the 14 and 20 period moving averages.

Take a looking at the bottom of the chart and you can see distribution selling volume as the spikes are all down days. If silver breaks below the $28 level then we could easily and quickly see the $26 and maybe even the $24 level.

The Mid-Week Market & Metals Trading Conclusion: In short, the financial power players are pulling out all the tricks to shake traders out of their positions. A lot of people shorted the market in the past 2 weeks only to get hung out to dry and most likely stopped out of their short positions for a loss. Fortunately we did the opposite taking another long position in the SP500 ETFS because my market internal indicators, market breadth and simple trading strategy clearly pointed out that the average investor was trying to pick a top by shorting the market. As we all know, the market is designed to hurt the masses which is why I focus on the underlying trends, price action, volume and market sentiment for timing trend changes.

That being said, I still think the market could grind higher and make another new high. But any rally or new high will most likely get stepped on with heavy selling. Expect strong selling days followed by a couple days of light volume sessions where the price drifts back up into resistance levels. This could take a week or two to unfold so don’t jump the gun and short yet. It’s best to see more distribution selling before picking a top.

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How to Buy Stocks Online

Daily stock trading involves buying and selling stocks, financial assets, shares and so many more.If you want to buy or sell stocks, it has become pretty easy nowadays due to the Internet.

Everything in this business follows the law of demand and supply, naturally.When people want a certain product, the equity and over-all worth of the company which manufactures the products will increase.If a particular product has a poor demand the opposite will happen.

The truth is, even if you know the different laws of economics, various things may influence the demand for certain commodities.You can learn the laws at school but the other things you can learn by picking up information which you hear around you.

To make financially advantageous decisions, here are some tips which can be used while trading online.

Check out daily stock picks

Some agencies post daily stock picks every day which people can review.High value shares are posted.The stocks are attractive to buy.If you own these stocks, you can sell them to the highest bidder.

Monitor as often as you could

Fluctuations take place daily in the stock’s worth.That is why businessmen are seen reading the newspapers often.There are changes taking place every moment.The changes are posted on the Internet and you could keep a tab through this.

Many organizations which are into this business can guide you in monitoring these trends.Often, they allow you to download specific programs which you can install in your own computer so you can view these as often as you can.They can also supply you with prime shortlisted stocks.

Make sure that the company is stable

Usually, companies with long histories and are still flourishing today, are truly the successful ones.The consumer’s trust and loyalty makes this happen.

These companies’ stocks may not be always available to you.If your idea to trade daily is to get stocks in a big company, then you should have contacts in the industry.If not, leave the talking to your stockbroker.

Take note of scandals

This business can thrive only by repute.The big shareholders and the owners are always watched.Losing the customer’s trust can happen if the demand goes down due to bad reports in the media.

Listen to your Gut Feel

A good university education does not guarantee that a stock broker or a trader will be of a good calibre.Writing books with this knowledge is not done by them.Success comes to those people in daily stock trading who use their gut feeling.

Online trading of stocks is not very easy.There is some risk involved in your willingness to invest.The maxim, nothing ventured nothing gained would apply here.While trading in stocks, you could reduce the risks by considering all the tips that are given.

Shane Engle is a financial advisor, stock broker, and professional consultant. He enjoys reporting on the latest stock market happenings and offering advice to both fledgling investors and experienced day traders. For more information on buying stock online or daily stock trading, please follow the links.

How to get started With Online Stock Trading

The convenience of online investing has made it increasingly popular in the common individual. You could trade from home, the local coffee shop or perhaps while traveling. If you want to know what’s occurring in the stock market there are several kinds of trading software that will help you do that.

Companies like E*Trade, Scottrade and TD Ameritrade made online stock trading both simple and inexpensive for the typical individual. There are many businesses to choose from. Be aware that smaller, less famous firms may not charge as much, but they also won’t provide as much services either. If you’re new to the stock market, choosing huge reliable companies could possibly prevent frustration. They feature all you need to get started, even though not all of them provide you with assistance. Once you know that you’ll need to get your hand held throughout the procedure, you must go with a company which offers live customer care or one that precisely states that they offer you assisted investing.

Having support won’t necessarily make trading online a walk in the park. You still need to read as much as you possibly can about the stock market as well as the business regarding online stock trading. If you’re unable to read a stock quote, then chances are you shouldn’t be investing in stocks online.

To get more experienced online investors, who want to keep track of what’s happening in the market, there are various types of trading software just like stock accounting software, which usually accumulates your trade history, enabling you to examine or match your trades. Stock day trading software helps you search your targeted trades, obtain information and manage your account. Stock analysis software data issues reports than enable you to find out when equity prices start falling. Trading software offers stock bid and ask prices. There are many other forms of trader platformsreadily available, usually for free, on the web. The sort you choose depends on what you need to know.

You don’t have to be rich or have a lot of disposable income to trade on the internet. For most companies, such as E-Trade, all you need is $500 to help you get started down the road to financial independence … in case you invest wisely, that is.

Online day trading continues to grow in popularity. But just because it is popular, that doesn’t mean it’s simple. To essentially generate income, you should know what you’re doing, and that necessitates experience and education. In case you do not have experience, at least, invest time to acquire some education before you start.

Affinity is an online stock trading and proprietary trading firm providing trading education and trading services to both experienced and beginning traders. Visit their site today for more information about their trading seminars.

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